Should Putin Make a Victorious Retreat from Ukraine?

In recent months, discussions have centered around whether Vladimir Putin should consider a strategic withdrawal from Ukraine as a form of victory. But is such a retreat truly feasible, or would it defy expectations and the political realities of the situation?

Why a Victorious Retreat?

Some argue that if Putin were to retreat successfully, it would mark a symbolic victory that would weaken both Eastern European countries and NATO as a whole. The suggestion is that with US support for Ukraine withdrawn, Putin would be empowered to take over Western Europe and resurrect a form of the Soviet Union. This scenario would leave many small nations vulnerable to Russian aggression, potentially changing the geopolitical landscape dramatically.

Is Such a Retreat Feasible?

The idea of a victorious retreat poses several challenges. For starters, Putin has been described as winning, or at least achieving significant military gains. This suggests that continuing to advance might yield more tangible victories rather than considering a retreat.

Furthermore, the Russian constitution and legal system require that Putin adhere to Russian laws. Ukraine, despite its claim of sovereignty, is a territory that is recognized by Russia as part of its national interests. Under the current legal framework, Putin is not allowed to cede land viewed as part of Russia's territory. This constitutional obligation makes a voluntary retreat problematic.

Consequences of Retreat

Historical precedent does not offer much hope for a victorious retreat. In the recent past, Afghanistan saw a chaotic withdrawal that did not culminate in victory for Afghan forces. Similarly, a well-executed but strategically sound retreat in Ukraine could be seen as a sign of weakness rather than strength.

One possibility that has been floated is Putin stepping down from politics altogether. This could involve a complete exit from both the political arena and public life. However, such a scenario is highly speculative and fraught with uncertainty.

Crampus in Arsium?

Some critics have sarcastically suggested this concept as a metaphorical condition, emphasizing the absurdity of expecting Putin to retreat victoriously. The imagery of performing a retreat with Russian troops paraded back to Moscow to be bragged about as a display of military might is both comical and troubling.

Conclusion

A victorious retreat from Ukraine by Putin is not simply unlikely, but it also contradicts the current momentum and legal realities. As the situation in Ukraine remains fluid, all options must be weighed carefully, considering both the immediate and long-term consequences. The geopolitical implications of such a move are profound and cannot be underestimated.